文章导读 庚子年开始不久，新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）肆虐全球，其为害触目惊心，令人战栗。尤其是从时间距离上看，本次疫情离2014年的埃博拉病毒（Ebola virus）、2003年的“非典”（SARS）不远；但是，世界各地的人们在早期的莫名恐慌和应对失措依然如出一辙。这似乎是应了哲学家黑格尔（G. W. F. Hegel，1770～1831年）一句睿智的讥诮：“人们从历史中吸取的教训是：人们从不从历史中吸取教训。”（People learn from history that people never learn from history.）也许这就是魔咒，也许这就是人生，也许情况并没有这样悲观和不堪。其实，在严峻的疫情压力之下，不同国家和地区的人们（包括政府管理人员、卫健专家、医务人员、媒体记者、普通百姓，等等），站在不同的位置、从不同的角度对疫情及其处置方式，都有不同的认识，其中不乏发人深省的反思。尤其是其中的一些对于前因后果的因果性认识，还是可圈可点的。因为，列举原因毕竟可以为他们的种种行为提供决策依据和合理性解释，从而有效地启动“因果推理引擎”（an engine of causal inference），最终把相关的因果知识和数据整合起来，建立量化的统计模型进行推断，形成对有关问题的解决方案及对其有效性的评估。
Abstract：Drawing upon the theoretical framework of ‘ladder of causation’ proposed by Pearl & Mackenzie (2018), this paper examines and analyses people’s causal cognition and attributional reflection on various prevention and control policies and measures as well as their effects in the pandemic situation of the COVID-19. To analyse people’s different observations and understandings of the pandemic, relevant linguistic expressions about the COVID-19 pandemic and its treatment measures are extracted from news reports and press coverage with an aim to reveal how people perceive the causal relation between actions of intervention and effects of control and thus to make inferences about it. A special focus is put on counter-factual expressions, e.g., Jiǎrú wǒmen dāngshí [bù] cǎiqǔ shèjiāo gélí cuòshī, qí jiéguǒ huì zěnyàng? (If we had [not] taken the measure of social distancing at that time, what would the result have been?) We argue that through examination of the textual forms of syntactic patterns and semantic structures, one is able to unpack the expressive features concerning people’s causal cognition and attributional reflection. The findings show that such expressions can be utilized to gauge the judgements of people in different regions on causal cognition and attributional reflection, and they also demonstrate the awareness of accountability and evaluation towards the morality risk between prevention measures and their effects.
袁毓林. 从语言表达看疫情下人们的因果认知与反思归因[J]. 语言战略研究, 2020, 5(5): 32-47.
Yuan Yulin. People’s Causal Cognition and Attributional Reflection amid the Pandemic: An Investigation from the Perspective of Linguistic Expressions. , 2020, 5(5): 32-47.
